Yikes! That whole "withholding" form when starting a new job is always a bit confusing. I learned decades to ago to never pick any extra "allowances", I think they are called? I wanted the government to take all the money it wanted from every paycheck, so I'd never have to deal with the surprise of owing money later in the year. I had a year or two long ago when the government wanted money that I couldn't easily find. Not fun. My refund for 2023 was $600 federal and $400 state. This year, without changing my withholding, the balance is off. Their recurring withdrawal from my paycheck did not leave me the usual refund this year.

I might have to deliberately add some extra withholding onto the recurring paycheck, so the government keeps more of my day-to-day money. I don't know if that tactic could help you avoid tax day surprises too? I never do anything complicated like stocks, cryptocurrency, or other business stuff, which I'm sure makes for more volatile predictions for end-of-year balances.