zipperbear: (Default)
zipperbear ([personal profile] zipperbear) wrote in [personal profile] mellowtigger 2022-03-14 10:41 pm (UTC)

Re: imagine yelling "Fire" in a crowded room, and everyone ignored you

Sure, that study sounds plausible, with strong evidence to rule out some other possibilities. It could help explain Long Covid in cases where the useful T-cells are being depleted, and regular Covid in the majority of cases when the T-cells are successful in fighting the infection (remember, before vaccines, the early estimates for cases were 1/3 asymptomatic, 1/3 mild, and 1/3 serious, so the immune system can win, although we have no idea what happens decades later, like chicken pox coming back as a shingles outbreak).

On the other hand, long-term effects are less significant with an illness that kills millions of people suddenly with pneumonia, heart attacks, strokes, and blood clots. I'm following your postings with interest, but I'm not quite as worried as you are. Everyone our age will die in the next century or so (unless a medical miracle happens soon). There's Alzheimer's, COPD, cancer, glaucoma, hearing loss, arthritis, slipped discs, restless leg syndrome, motor disorders, autoimmune trouble, and all the other body malfunctions that get cumulatively worse with age. Compare those to external things like treatment-resistant infections, heavy metal accumulation, traffic accidents, slip-and-fall injuries, house fires, mauling by animals (wild or domestic), natural disasters, or warfare (military, inter-gang, or police SWAT activity).

Edit to add: The top causes for 2020 that I didn't mention off the top of my head were diabetes and kidney failure (nephritis, etc). Heart trouble and cancer still top the list, above Covid.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm

If it's not one thing, it's another. The human immune system has lots of clever strategies, but it's really only optimized for a 35-year life expectancy -- once you're old enough to babysit the grandkids, your evolutionary advantage to your progeny is a trade-off vs. being another mouth to feed.
And science advances one funeral at a time:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planck%27s_principle

There's also not much we can do. Now that much of the world is vaccinated or previously infected, the virus strains that can continue to spread are good at breakthrough infections (to overcome antibodies) and good at inducing a high particle count (to overcome masking). We can't make dumb people smart, and we can't make evil people good.

If Covid cuts the human population by 10% or more, that's probably a good thing for the planet (unless it encourages a higher birth rate), even if it's bad for the people being culled. But then, I don't live near active gunfire, and I don't need to work with unvaccinated lunatics.

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