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covid-19 on 2020 March 09 Monday
2020-Mar-09, Monday 10:01 amFirst, don't panic. Even though COVID-19 is now epidemic across the USA and pandemic globally, it's still not an appropriate time to panic. The fatality rate is sufficiently high for healthy people to be concerned, even to be very concerned if they know people in high risk groups... but not panic.
Second, some definitions. We'll need these terms so we can discuss appropriate responses later.
Third, don't buy surgical masks. A surgical mask is not a respirator. Just look at the name of it to understand it. A surgeon dons the mask to prevent spread of disease from surgeon to patient, where the surgeon is the one hosting pathogens potentially harmful to the patient. These masks are effective at preventing someone who is already sick from coughing, sneezing, or simply breathing and spreading wet droplets of infectious material into their surroundings. The droplets must be wet in order to "catch" in the flimsy paper mask. The protection doesn't work nearly as effectively in the opposite direction for such microscopic particles. (It's more than zero, so feel free to indulge your paranoia only if market supplies are plentiful.) If dried infectious material is floating through the air in your vicinity, that paper mask is not effective in blocking them as you inhale. Don't buy surgical masks if you're healthy. Leave that stock on the shelf for people who are sick. That surgical mask might help slightly with large airborn material (when you're cutting drywall, or if the local volcano is spewing ash) if proper equipment isn't available, but don't use it for dried microscopic infectious particles. Sick people need those surgical masks.
Fourth, inform yourself. Thanks to the information age, there are many great opportunities in this category.
I realize this post is more about what NOT to do rather than what to actively DO. I'll get to that topic later, but I didn't want this post to become unwieldy. I also intend to post about what went wrong (and still is going wrong) here in the USA, but that's definitely a much longer post.
Second, some definitions. We'll need these terms so we can discuss appropriate responses later.
- SARS-CoV-2 is the name of the virus.
- COVID-19 is the name of the resulting disease.
- Endemic disease is the constant presence of a disease in an area.
- Epidemic disease is the sudden increase of a particular disease over its usual endemic levels.
- Pandemic disease is an epidemic that has spread over several countries or continents.
Third, don't buy surgical masks. A surgical mask is not a respirator. Just look at the name of it to understand it. A surgeon dons the mask to prevent spread of disease from surgeon to patient, where the surgeon is the one hosting pathogens potentially harmful to the patient. These masks are effective at preventing someone who is already sick from coughing, sneezing, or simply breathing and spreading wet droplets of infectious material into their surroundings. The droplets must be wet in order to "catch" in the flimsy paper mask. The protection doesn't work nearly as effectively in the opposite direction for such microscopic particles. (It's more than zero, so feel free to indulge your paranoia only if market supplies are plentiful.) If dried infectious material is floating through the air in your vicinity, that paper mask is not effective in blocking them as you inhale. Don't buy surgical masks if you're healthy. Leave that stock on the shelf for people who are sick. That surgical mask might help slightly with large airborn material (when you're cutting drywall, or if the local volcano is spewing ash) if proper equipment isn't available, but don't use it for dried microscopic infectious particles. Sick people need those surgical masks.
Fourth, inform yourself. Thanks to the information age, there are many great opportunities in this category.
- RoyLab Stats on YouTube for current coronavirus numbers by country. This livestream has aired continuously since 2020 Jan 29, and I visit it occasionally.
- NextStrain for genome tracking. Basically, you get to watch evolution in real time from this open-source project. I recommend the "Situation Report 2020-03-05". Use the big arrow (bottom left of screen) to navigate pages. Watch on fullscreen computer, not smartphone. It's a lot of data to display.
- nCov Control for learning about how interventions can influence the trajectory of an epidemic. It's developed by people at University of Toronto.
- Dr. Mike Varshavski plays Plague Inc game on YouTube. This doctor, beginning a career of fighting disease, becomes hilariously inspired in a matter of minutes to grow a plague that wipes out humanity. It sounds dark, but I found these 11 minutes to be quite amusing. You also learn (which is the whole point of the game) important concepts of pathogen evolution and human sociopolitical investment.
- Dr. Mike Hansen describes autopsy reports on COVID-19. These 10 minutes are maybe the serious version of the game video. It's definitely "dark" material but also very enlightening about medical process, virus evolution, and human patient behavior.
- COVID-19 comparison to other diseases like flu. (Edit: 2020 March 13 Fri. I just found this link, and it has good information.)
- fact-checking at Snopes. (Edit: 2020 March 13 Fri. Another new link. It's also important to rid yourself of misinformation.)
I realize this post is more about what NOT to do rather than what to actively DO. I'll get to that topic later, but I didn't want this post to become unwieldy. I also intend to post about what went wrong (and still is going wrong) here in the USA, but that's definitely a much longer post.