it'll get worse

[mellowtigger]

I, of course, am expecting "The Crash" to happen. :) Other people probably aren't so pessimistic, but I don't see how anyone can think we've reached bottom yet.

At Bear Coffee last night, one local said that he hasn't made any payments on his house since January. He's expecting the local sheriff department to come by any day now to evict him. His parents (I'm not sure what happened to their house) had moved in with him too so they're all going to be moving on to other things soon. The personal home meltdown isn't over yet.

I've read one livejournal entry (where posts on the matter are Friends-locked for obvious reasons) that a county in a metropolitan area of the US has announced layoffs after they determined that 50% of all commercial property in the county was in technical default. Since the county couldn't expect tax revenues from these businesses in 2009, the county needed to lay off its workforce now. I heard a story on National Public Radio this week about the likelihood of a business property meltdown appearing very soon now.

Jobless claims are now at a 16-year high. I think these figures come from money being paid out for unemployment. If so, they are underreported. Some people have been unemployed so long that they are no longer receiving money. My roommate, on the other hand, got a severance package of a few months' pay when he was laid off. Minnesota will not pay him unemployment compensation until that same number of months has passed. So he's probably a "future unemployed" statistic that hasn't been counted yet.

I went yesterday to the website where I found my tech job. I used to have to scroll through lots of listing back when I was visiting during December-February last winter. Yesterday there were 3 jobs. That's all. Sure, it's a website devoted specifically to job postings by non-profit organizations, but it's a good sign of what businesses (that depend on handouts/donations) are expecting from next fiscal year.

Even back in September, tent cities were already springing up around the country. I haven't seen any locally, but it's probably because the winters get bitterly cold here so the homeless migrate south to warmer climates.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/LIVING/wayoflife/09/19/tent.cities.ap/index.html

It'll get a lot worse, folks.

Worst. President. Ever. (Vote Quimby!)

Comments

[snousle.livejournal.com]

Not to be picky, but the curve in your user icon is not exponential.

The worst risk now is apparently deflationary spiral. It's a shame because the US has more than enough wealth for everyone to get by just fine, but deflation freezes everything up. The scare-book du jour is The Return of Depression Economics (http://www.amazon.com/Return-Depression-Economics-Paul-Krugman/dp/0393320367/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1227205077&sr=8-1), which describes a babysitting co-op as a model of how there can be both supply and demand but no money available to connect the two. This was a new and surprising concept for me that definitely raised my own level of concern.

On the plus side, China has lots and lots of our money and there is every reason to believe they will spend it, which could greatly improve employment in the US, which would halt deflation though it may raise prices a lot. The trade deficit has to be corrected somehow, and this seems like the most likely scenario.

[mellowtigger]

Not exponential?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth

[snousle.livejournal.com]

Not exponential. In particular, exponential growth curves do not have a vertical asymptote. What you have shown here most closely resembles a hyperbola.

[nudewoody.livejournal.com]

My history prof was just telling us today how lucky we are as we get to see first hand an example of a "worst president." In the past, he said, he would mention Hoover and the class would say, Hoover, what's that, a vacuum cleaner?

Of course, with fractional reserve banking and fiat money it's all a Ponzi scheme anyway. The scary part is the earth has a limited carrying capacity and an economic system based on continuous growth cannot be sustained in the long run. In addition, real wealth will rot, rust, or with out with age, whereas virtual wealth (money and debt as accounting devices invented by humans) are subject only to the laws of mathematics.

[nudewoody.livejournal.com]

I love the fact that Krugman won the Nobel Prize! Must really piss off all those supply-siders . .

[mellowtigger]

You're going to make me come up with a formula for this eventually, aren't you. ;) That'd be good, though, don't let me get by with sloppy math.

I figure it'll end up being in logarithmic form to satisfy the vertical asymptote that I see in my mind's eye.

edit: p.s. Unless I'm getting hung up on the asymptote and need to find a different name for the concept that hangs there? Hrmmm, possible. There's a point along x where the resulting y value becomes nonsensical/impossible. Only function values < x can exist as real. *wanders off to ponder some more* I think I do need to sit down and write out the function. (homework assignment)

[mellowtigger]

Yes, yes, it's the y that's problematic, not the x. The magic value of x generates a function value that can't exist. So I called it an asymptote. But it's not. (homework pre-assignment)

[mellowtigger]

I'd argue that it's instead a pyramid scheme. Ultimately just as unsustainable.