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mellowtiggerTwo whistleblowers from the International Energy Agency are claiming that IEA figures about world oil production are basically just exaggerations (lies) intended to placate American interests.
Here is a chart of the disputed figures that are now claimed to be too optimistic.
So we have peak oil (which I'm still guessing has already happened a few years ago) and the falling value of the US Dollar both working to increase the price of oil by large amounts. I expect the price of gasoline (currently about $2.50) at the American pump to zoom up again in 2010. I think it will exceed $4/gallon by the end of 2010 just 13 months from now. I think that gasoline should approach $6/gallon in that timeframe, but that price would require a robust American economy to support it. That won't happen. If oil producers succeed in moving away from the American dollar as the valuation of oil barrels, however, then US$ price per oil barrel can careen off into whatever obscene territory it wants to.
There are some very interesting new technologies emerging that are meant to produce liquid fuel from waste agriculture material using algea or bacteria. Both kinds of technologies are even being researched here in Minnesota. They won't, however, reach commercial application before the end of 2010, so we must still rely on traditional crude oil for our energy. Forget these deep undersea oil fields. It'll take even longer (and cost even more) to get them into production. My prediction stands: we'll exceed $4/gallon again in 2010.
I'm adding the "predictions" tag to this post so I'm sure to come back later to judge the effectiveness of my own crystal ball. :)
"[The agency] has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying."
- http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-international-energy-agency
- http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-international-energy-agency
Here is a chart of the disputed figures that are now claimed to be too optimistic.
So we have peak oil (which I'm still guessing has already happened a few years ago) and the falling value of the US Dollar both working to increase the price of oil by large amounts. I expect the price of gasoline (currently about $2.50) at the American pump to zoom up again in 2010. I think it will exceed $4/gallon by the end of 2010 just 13 months from now. I think that gasoline should approach $6/gallon in that timeframe, but that price would require a robust American economy to support it. That won't happen. If oil producers succeed in moving away from the American dollar as the valuation of oil barrels, however, then US$ price per oil barrel can careen off into whatever obscene territory it wants to.
There are some very interesting new technologies emerging that are meant to produce liquid fuel from waste agriculture material using algea or bacteria. Both kinds of technologies are even being researched here in Minnesota. They won't, however, reach commercial application before the end of 2010, so we must still rely on traditional crude oil for our energy. Forget these deep undersea oil fields. It'll take even longer (and cost even more) to get them into production. My prediction stands: we'll exceed $4/gallon again in 2010.
I'm adding the "predictions" tag to this post so I'm sure to come back later to judge the effectiveness of my own crystal ball. :)
no subject
Date: 2009-Nov-11, Wednesday 05:29 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2009-Nov-11, Wednesday 05:33 pm (UTC)I didn't mention this time that nuclear (fission) is also a dead-end for the same reason as oil: it's a non-renewable resource. I talked earlier about how we may have hit peak uranium production decades ago. It is utterly pointless to discuss building new nuclear reactors now.
Nuclear fusion (hydrogen) would be awesome. That'd save the status quo, definitely. Algea and bacteria seem a more likely bet, though.