changing the oil

[mellowtigger]

The last oil crunch is not decades away and not years away; it is months away, according to the U.S. government and military.  Here is the information that I think will help you prepare for the change that is fast approaching.

What to know:

In 2009, the U.S. Department Of Energy produced this "bombshell" chart.

- http://www.eia.doe.gov/conference/2009/session3/Sweetnam.pdf (page 8)

Notice that it shows how world petroleum needs are being met after 2011 by this curious white space called "Unidentified Projects".  Translated, it means that there isn't enough oil.  Think about what that limitation means to the world, your local economy, your employer, and you personally.

In 2010, the U.S. military's Joint Forces Command released its annual report on world security concerns.  In its "Energy Summary", it included the following review.

"The discovery rate for new petroleum and gas fields over the past two decades (with the possible exception of Brazil) provides little reason for optimism that future efforts will find major new fields.  ... By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD."
- http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storyarchive/2010/JOE_2010_o.pdf (page 29)

It's not the tree-hugging hippies that are delivering this bad news, so pay attention.  The end of oil begins only 20 months from now.

What to expect:

It won't be a sudden change, so don't expect the apocalypse.  It will begin with a small shortage, and the inconvenience will continuously grow.  The increased cost for petroleum will affect prices for many important products and services to which you are accustomed.  These items will become significantly more expensive soon:

• gasoline for your vehicle
• foods shipped from elsewhere
• energy use (gas and probably electricity) at home
• plastics (household items) and rubbers (automobile tires)
• transportation fees for all items shipped by postal service
• transportation fees for people traveling by plane, train, bus, or boat

What to do personally:

Knowing what's coming, you can certainly prepare ahead of time.  Not every coping mechanism will require cutting back on usage.  Some alternatives exist where you merely change the nature of what you do rather than the amount of it.  Every tactic means reducing your current energy usage.  Until fusion energy becomes available, reduction of energy usage is the only game in town.

1. Reduce the distance that you travel.  Consider moving somewhere closer to your workplace, or consider working somewhere closer to your home.  Plan your vacations without visits to remote locations.  Plan trips to stores only once a week, and choose a route that is most direct to all of the stores where you shop.
2. Reduce the energy demands of your travel.  Buy a bicycle and lock now, then learn the best bicycle paths for your frequent travels.  If you're lucky, your workplace will have a locker room where you can change clothes.  (If not, consider finding a new workplace that does offer this specific amenity.)  Become familiar now with the mass transit routes available to you between work and home.
3. Reduce the energy demands of your food.  Plant a garden.  City lots will not have nearly enough land available to grow all of your own food; instead, look at a garden as a small supplement that allows you to reduce your overall costs.  Replace your ornamental trees, shrubs, and lawn with plants that actually produce food.  Choose foods at the supermarket that are grown within your state.  Learn the locations of your local farmer markets, and visit them now to get familiar with them and their crop seasons.  Expects prices of foods produced far away to increase, not just exotics but even the staples like bananas and potatoes.  Experiment: learn recipes that contain only foods produced within your region.
4. Reduce the energy demands of your home.  Consider LED lighting as you replace bulbs; they're even more efficient than flourescent bulbs.  Improve the insulation in walls, windows, and doors.  Change the energy profile of your computer so that it shuts itself off rather than going into screensaver mode when unused.  Open the windows more often so that you get accustomed to living in natural temperatures rather than in energy-expensive controlled temperatures.

What to do professionally:

Your employer had better start preparing now for the change in human habits that I listed above.  Both employees and customers will change how they consume energy.  Alert your management now to this coming shift in economic activity.  Decide now how it will affect your business income and expenditures.

Here are some changes that you can ask to implement in your workplace.  If your current employer can't provide them, then consider finding a new employer who can.  Gas and electricity costs will increase substantially, so develop your company into an employer who can survive this change.  It's in your best personal interest.

1. Find sufficient locker rooms and bike racks to deal with employees commuting by bicycle.  
2. Find shift changes that allow for convenient use of mass transit.  It's not possible to ship entire populations of cities at the exact same hour.  Staggered work schedules are necessary.
3. Find ways of teleconferencing or telecommuting.  It's much cheaper to get people talking by phone and computer than it is to ship human bodies back and forth between cities.  Experiment now to find solutions that work for your corporate environment.  If telecommuting, consider connecting to centralized servers rather than to individual pc workstations.
4. Demand travel compensation.  I do not mean an allowance for gasoline when you travel on work business; employers do that already.  Instead, I mean that if your employer requires you to drive your personal vehicle to work (rather than take cheaper alternatives like mass transit, carpool, or bicycle), then expect them to give you an increased budget to compensate for the difference in price, adjusted for the distance that you travel.  The cost will be paid regardless of whose budget (yours or theirs) is affected, but forcing it into their attention will be a good incentive for them to provide support for the above 3 suggestions.
5. Turn off those computers and monitors when you leave.  Your employer will need to find ways of remotely turning on the computer at night to install necessary software/security updates then turning the computer back off again when they're done.
6. Reduce usage of consumable products which require shipment to your location.  Use less paper, use less ink or toner, use less plastic utensils or paper cups, use less paper towels.  Show people a single copy of standard literature, then provide them an electronic address where they can download their own personal copy.  Keep a cup, bowl, and spoon at your desk at work so that you never have to rely on consumable products there.
7. Change to LED lights as burnt out tubes need replacing.  They are the most energy efficient option available right now.  There already exist LED light strips that can be used in place of flourescent tubes without needing to change the whole lighting infrastucture of a building.

I have a question.  Does anyone know for sure that air dryers are more energy-efficient than using paper towels?  Considering cost-of-electricity for air dryers (and their maintenance) versus cost-of-transportation for paper (and its production), I don't know which option wins.

In summary:

Soon, energy costs will increase sharply.  Do everything you can now to prepare for this change.  It will affect everything.  It doesn't have to end anything, though.  You can easily survive the change with extra planning.  Start practicing now.  Purchase what you need now.  Don't wait until everyone else is scrambling to adapt, because that market demand will increase product prices too.

Comments

[randomcub.livejournal.com]

Ack.

I really wish I had enough $$ to install geothermal heat/cooling in my house.

[dodecadragon.livejournal.com]

Save lots of money and DIY :o)

http://www.geothermaldiy.com/

[randomcub.livejournal.com]

I think I lack the necessary butch points!

[dodecadragon.livejournal.com]

Which is why this might be a good career choice for me. :o) Logan, the geothermal/wind/solar installer. I just need to hurry up and finish getting my fat ass in shape. :oP

[pi3832.livejournal.com]

The last oil crunch is not decades away and not years away; it is months away, according to the U.S. government and military.

Yeah, and those folks have nothing to gain by convincing the American public that the sky is falling.

[snousle.livejournal.com]

Um, their projections show reference case for 2030 is $130 a barrel, with a range of $50 to $200. The economy will function just fine with those prices. I don't call that alarming, I call that tremendously reassuring, as I had thought current projections were MUCH worse than that.