it's time for the serious part

[mellowtigger]

Now comes the hard part. Because the USA has done almost nothing for months (and I'll write a separate post about that topic), things will escalate quickly from now through June. It will be bad. Some estimates are that the USA will see half a million deaths. Not 3,000 deaths among 80,000 cases like China currently. The USA should prepare for 480,000 deaths from 96 million infections.

The vast majority of people will survive. That's not the point, though. Those survivors and other uninfected people must act in order to save as many people as possible from unnecessary death.

This image is being shared with good reason. That horizontal dotted line represents the capacity of your local healthcare system to care for the severely ill. Simply by slowing the spread of the disease, we can prevent the growth of sudden peaks of total infections and major illness. When a peak exists above that healthcare capacity, then doctors will have to perform triage and choose who gets a respirator (and probably lives) and who does not (and probably dies). It's important to flatten the curve.

I want to add an improvement to this graphic. I want another dotted line, but a vertical one somewhere on the right-hand side of the chart. It would represent the point in time, someday in the future, when a vaccine is developed and can help introduce immunity to the general population. Again, if we flatten the curve by delaying infection as long as possible, then we can hope for a vaccine introduction to chop off part of the right-hand side of the graph. It would represent many people who never have to become ill in the first place. Again, it's important to flatten the curve.

So... what can I do? What can the average USA citizen do?

1. Don't touch your face. Easier said than done, I know. Your body is constantly exposed to fomites (any small infectious particle), and you don't want to swap this virus (or any other) from your hands to your eyes, nose, and mouth.


2. Wash your hands with soap.  Alcohol will not kill norovirus. Plain old soap is good for removing lots of stuff. Wash for 20 seconds. Wash between your fingers. Wash your thumbs. Wash the deep grooves in your palms.


3. Avoid crowds. For the next 4 months, avoid crowds. Yes, 4 months. Not just 2 weeks. The USA prepared badly, and this party is just getting started. If possible, when shopping for groceries and other supplies, make bigger but fewer trips. Remember to sanitize again afterwards.


4. Buy different kinds of food online. Are scared people clearing out even the food shelves at your local grocery store? Buy something different. I happen to be well stocked in Soylent, so I can survive quite a long time if I got stuck indoors by mandatory quarantine. I'm sure there are other long-storage rations available online.


5. Cancel your social events. Sure, you like your friends. Meet them online instead. People can transmit this new coronavirus even when they show no symptoms. It doesn't matter that your friends seem healthy.  This rule is also a lesson from the HIV heyday.  If you assume that everyone is HIV-positive, then you will remember to always act safely.


6. Shower before social events.  In case you can't simply avoid all contact with humanity, then after grocery shopping, after riding the bus, after driving home from the office, during these times when you might unintentionally be carrying infectious material on your body or clothes... shower before you interact with your family.


7. Stop shaking hands. A friendly nod can suffice.


8. Make your own mask, but only if you really need one. Don't buy surgical masks unless you are sick (or know you've been exposed and might be infectious without symptoms yet). This YouTube video shows you how to make your own face mask from alternative materials.


9. If you can work from home, do that. It's not even an option for lots of people. Because of USA internet infrastructure, I also suspect it will be less than ideal if lots of people try to do it at the same time. Companies have not invested in home/rural infrastructure like they have in dense commercial areas.


10. Donate money to your local food banks. The USA has terrible social safety nets compared to the rest of the civilized world. Many USA families are simply unable to cope financially if a parent has to stay home from work (unpaid) because all schools are closed indefinitely. They can't afford childcare. The financial burden adds to their existing problems. The kids may have depended on schools for some of their meals too. So find your local food bank and donate cash during this extended crisis.

"Privilege is the difference between disruption and devastation. I refuse to complain." - twitter



11. Volunteer your time, if you're able. Are you healthy, fit, and willing to risk exposure by meeting lots of people? I'm sure there are volunteer organizations in your area that need help delivering meals, groceries, or other supplies. I've seen volunteers at my nearby hospital too, although that gig might require extended training first.


12. Donate money to particular political candidates. If you still have lots of money left over, consider donating to the election campaign for opposition candidates to any politician (in your vicinity or somewhere far away) who has voted against disaster preparedness, against welfare funding, against science-based initiatives, or against worker safety. COVID-19 will not be the last new disease to reach pandemic level. The USA desperately needs a government that functions properly next time.

That's all I have this morning. I'll be sure to add more if anything else practical crosses my news feeds.  There are certainly longer lists than mine, but I think I've got the highlights covered here.  If we take what seems like extreme measures now, if we keep the curve flat, then we can avoid unnecessary deaths.  If all goes very well, then it will seem like an overreaction.

Remember Y2K?  It's like that.  It requires a lot of very expensive measures, but it can turn out okay if we commit to those practices.