the mellow tigger's musings

When stars die and explode into a supernova, they create elements that are "heavy". All of the elements in the universe that are heavier than lead were created this way, in the death throes of a depleted star. Uranium 238 is one of those elements. Fast forward beyond the deaths of many old stars to the birth of our own solar system. Random nearby material (including U-238 from previous supernovas) gets swept together by gravity to form our sun and planets. As the ball of dust called Earth comes together, the U-238 gets locked into the planet with everything else. Over geologic timescales, the U-238 slowly decays. Decay produces heat, which is why we use the process in nuclear fission reactors.  The heat plays its own small part in keeping our planet warm over the geologic ages. The decay also produces the element radon.

Radon forms as a gas. It leaks upward through cracks in the crust, but sometimes it gets trapped underneath hard layers of stone. If the radon reaches the surface, it can make its way through the concrete slab of your basement into the open air. Radon is a noble gas so it's rather harmless by itself. Breathing it is still very dangerous, however, because radon has a half-life of only 3.8 days. If it's in your body when it finally decays, it makes bad things happen. It releases radiation during the decay which will damage your cells, and it decays into other elements that are also radioactive and/or poisonous. This danger is why we have radon detectors for use in basements with poor ventilation.

Scientists may have found another interaction of radon gas. It seems that about 3 days before an earthquake, new cracks form in the earth's crust that allow previously trapped radon gas to escape. When large amounts of gas reach the atmosphere, they produce extra heat and ionization during their decay process (again, remember the half-life of only 3.8 days). This heat and ionization is detectable. Some researchers claim they can match these anomalous increases to the 2008 earthquake in China, the 2010 earthquake in Haiti, and the 2011 earthquake in Japan.  Not every radon-induced atmospheric change results in an earthquake, and not every earthquake becomes a massive disaster.  Still, though, it may be possible soon to have "earthquake watch" alerts similiar to "tornado watch" alerts, letting people know that environmental conditions favor the possibility of a traumatic event.

Cool stuff!

I'm still a believer in zero-growth as the new worldwide paradigm.  Sadly, to reach that point, there will first have to be negative-growth to reach equilibrium.  Negative growth is painful.  Sustainable economy is a reasonable and possible endeavor.  Here's the situation as I see it:

1) Price for oil should be a lot higher than it is now.  Large-scale concerns (worries about the health of the economies that consume oil) have kept the price artificially low.  I find proof of this interpretation in the recent price hike that resulted only from good economic indicators.  Price increases usually result from changes in supply or demand, but this price increase at the gas pump resulted only from optimism rather than actual demand.  That's how eager the industry is to raise prices to their proper equilibrium.


2) Full-time jobs aren't coming back.  The official unemployment rate seems to have leveled off finally, but that's nowhere near the same thing as a recovery.  Also, the "feel" of the economy is worse than the unemployment rate would suggest.  This table shows why.  U3 is the "official unemployment" rate, but U6 is better at showing how the typical American is faring under the hardship.  U6 is much higher than U3.  People are staying unemployed, temp employed, and part-time employed for very long durations.  This stall is not the same as "recovery".

3) Our industry (as currently structured) cannot recover unless cheap energy is available. Peak oil has passed, and it's not coming back.  Recent news about Obama authorizing drilling off our coastlines is only good press meant to mollify conservatives.  It won't actually help our underlying problem.  This table (skip to page 8) shows why.

That link provides a March 2009 presentation from U.S. Department of Energy conference.  They point out that after the year 2011, world energy needs will be met by this mysterious white space called "Unidentified Projects".  That's a polite way of saying, "There isn't any more oil."  Drilling off the coastline won't erase the gap.  Drilling in Alaska won't erase the gap.  The problem is that there was a limited amount of oil on the planet, and more than half of it is now gone.  The Iraq war was about fighting to keep our hands on some of the last productive fields on Earth.

4)  Obama has also announced plans to help build new nuclear reactors. I've already explained why building new nuclear reactors is the same bad decision as drilling for more oil.  Limited resource, dwindling supplies, no long term energy solution.

5) The dollar is toast.  World banks are colluding to keep it propped up beyond its natural lifespan.  We chose an exponential function for the creation of our currency, and such a decision embeds late-life hyperinflation into the structure of the thing.  We've reached that point finally.  It's not Bush's asshattery, it's not Obama's lousy financial regulation, and it's not the corrupt Federal Reserve Bank.  It's the mathematical model that we chose decades ago for our money.  It's absolutely the wrong model.


In summary, I think this is what zero growth feels like.  This is what life will be like after the crash.  (Yes, I said after the crash.)  Learn to live with less stuff (energy, tech, travel), and life will actually be rather nice.

I went out to garden this morning after 8am, but the temperature was barely above freezing.  I got my hands in the dirt and they went numb, so I came back inside. It's nearly time to plant, and I'm eager!