the Wuhan coronavirus
2020-Jan-29, Wednesday 06:30 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
mellowtiggerThis informative article describes the various R-naught numbers that have been offered recently, with 2.5 (from Britain) sort of becoming the default USA talking point. They’re a bit too rosy in their estimation, though. Here is an ArcGIS webpage that visually tracks data on this outbreak.
There are 6K cases already known in China, after just a few days, and that exceeds the entire total of SARS cases in China during that whole epidemic. So this virus is quite contagious. It's a cause for concern. It’s currently estimated with a fatality rate of “only” about 3%, while SARS was closer to 11%. A 97% survival rate is some measure of good news, so it's good reason not to panic now.
Australia had a fast-response lab setup for exactly such emergencies. They're the first lab outside of China to announce their successful replication of the virus.
There are also reports that Wuhan is home to Wuhan Institute of Virology. It is the only site that China has openly declared is capable of working with deadly viruses, and some suspect it also contributes to a covert biological weapons program. The implication is that they accidentally unleashed this virus. Even if true (and I have no reason to think it is), it doesn't alter the facts above in any way. There's still no reason to panic. Precautions are good and worthwhile, but not panic.
Let's hope that a vaccine will arrive soon. A 97% survival rate is good, but I'd rather not gamble if there's a better alternative.
There are 6K cases already known in China, after just a few days, and that exceeds the entire total of SARS cases in China during that whole epidemic. So this virus is quite contagious. It's a cause for concern. It’s currently estimated with a fatality rate of “only” about 3%, while SARS was closer to 11%. A 97% survival rate is some measure of good news, so it's good reason not to panic now.
Australia had a fast-response lab setup for exactly such emergencies. They're the first lab outside of China to announce their successful replication of the virus.
There are also reports that Wuhan is home to Wuhan Institute of Virology. It is the only site that China has openly declared is capable of working with deadly viruses, and some suspect it also contributes to a covert biological weapons program. The implication is that they accidentally unleashed this virus. Even if true (and I have no reason to think it is), it doesn't alter the facts above in any way. There's still no reason to panic. Precautions are good and worthwhile, but not panic.
Let's hope that a vaccine will arrive soon. A 97% survival rate is good, but I'd rather not gamble if there's a better alternative.