the trends are already in place
2020-Mar-30, Monday 10:52 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
mellowtiggerI first used my "epidemics" blog tag on 2020 January 29. That's when I knew something bad was coming. It wasn't even my job to monitor such things, but I knew then that it would not be good for the USA.
A long series of U.S. government failures from people whose job is to prepare for epidemics are noted in a current New York Times article (archive). I expect that old history to grow even more problematic as we learn of financial conflicts of interest. Mostly, though, it will remain a testament to our failure to model, failure to test, failure to restrict, and failure to staff (especially the CDC). The anti-science vein in American politics has been particularly strong amongst conservatives.
One great example is Jerry Falwell Jr. re-opening Liberty University, allowing more transmission as students became sick.
You can practically watch their failure in real-time. Here are cell phone transponder records showing people at a Florida beach (on left) and those same cell phone transponders later (on right). Florida's Republican governor refused to shut down beaches, and those spring break visitors traveled back home across half the continental USA. Not only will Florida be hard hit, but that contamination will now spread to many other states. I recommend watching the original video (archive) for the explanation of their data. We can expect the same pattern from Texas. At least California tried to shut it down, with late results.
Similarly, the USA failed to restrict internal travel. We allowed airlines to cram people into infection tubes then disperse those new infections across the country, often with no screening whatsover for potential illness as they do in other countries.
As I keep saying, this party is just getting started.
I may, however, limit my epidemic posts in the future. I still want to write a piece on HIV/AIDS lessons, just to get those thoughts out of my head. Afterwards, though, I may just leave this topic alone. The USA already has its trends in place. Our outcome will not be the best possible outcome for "the richest county on earth" with "the best healthcare on earth" and "a really smart guy" leading it. My writing about it will not change that inescapable outcome. January probably was the time for that change.
A long series of U.S. government failures from people whose job is to prepare for epidemics are noted in a current New York Times article (archive). I expect that old history to grow even more problematic as we learn of financial conflicts of interest. Mostly, though, it will remain a testament to our failure to model, failure to test, failure to restrict, and failure to staff (especially the CDC). The anti-science vein in American politics has been particularly strong amongst conservatives.
They focused on five measures taken directly from state government websites: restrictions on gatherings, school closures, restaurant restrictions, non-essential business closures, and stay-at-home orders. Trump initially downplayed the threat of the virus, and “numerous surveys have found significant partisan divides in public opinion about the severity of the coronavirus threat,” the researchers point out. Their research showed that states with Republican governors and more Trump voters introduced social distancing policies 2.7 days later than more liberal states. “Does a 2.7 day delay matter?” the researchers write, concluding: “Given the quick doubling time of COVID-19, these delays have the potential to cause a dramatic increase in the peak volume of cases.”
- https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/03/new-research-shows-states-with-republican-governors-were-slower-to-adopt-social-distancing-policies/
- https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/03/new-research-shows-states-with-republican-governors-were-slower-to-adopt-social-distancing-policies/
One great example is Jerry Falwell Jr. re-opening Liberty University, allowing more transmission as students became sick.
You can practically watch their failure in real-time. Here are cell phone transponder records showing people at a Florida beach (on left) and those same cell phone transponders later (on right). Florida's Republican governor refused to shut down beaches, and those spring break visitors traveled back home across half the continental USA. Not only will Florida be hard hit, but that contamination will now spread to many other states. I recommend watching the original video (archive) for the explanation of their data. We can expect the same pattern from Texas. At least California tried to shut it down, with late results.Similarly, the USA failed to restrict internal travel. We allowed airlines to cram people into infection tubes then disperse those new infections across the country, often with no screening whatsover for potential illness as they do in other countries. As I keep saying, this party is just getting started.
I may, however, limit my epidemic posts in the future. I still want to write a piece on HIV/AIDS lessons, just to get those thoughts out of my head. Afterwards, though, I may just leave this topic alone. The USA already has its trends in place. Our outcome will not be the best possible outcome for "the richest county on earth" with "the best healthcare on earth" and "a really smart guy" leading it. My writing about it will not change that inescapable outcome. January probably was the time for that change.