mellowtigger | Entries tagged with civil war

Please go read this post about the USA civil war (past and potential future) by

siderea. I'll attempt to summarize the sections.

States acting against other states (they did in the past, and they are now)
"...states inevitably resist the inevitable attempts of oppressor states to dominate the free states. But I'm saying we know where this goes. This ends in bullets."
minority control over Congress (House in the past, Senate now (okay, and the House))
"And the problem is that if a slave counts for three-fifths a person for purposes of getting allocated members in the House of Representatives, then a state could buy Representatives in Congress by buying slaves."
non-negotiable ethical conflict (slavery in the past, abortion and LGBT issues now)
"This will end in bullets because this is not a conflict of equally plausible moral positions, but a conflict between a polity organized around the legitimacy of subjugating others and peoples who do not care to be subjugated and will not go quietly."
conflict possible with either thwarted aims (in the past) or successful takeover (still undecided now)
"The threat model is that a conquering-minded, anti-democractic movement will take over the federal government, and then as they subjugate the states that resist them, send in federal troops."

I find this pattern of history credible for predicting our near future.
Reminder 1: David Brin says that the U.S. civil war never ended, so it might be accurate to say that the long-standing cold war may soon turn hot.
Reminder 2: In this moment, we need an activist/populist/organizer president. #BernieWouldHaveWon but Biden convinced 2 of the leading candidates to withdraw from the race, so he as the 4th place candidate could take the Presidency. Now, Biden must immediately become Bernie Sanders or watch the USA lose political ground on his watch.

Edit 2022 July 03: A Rabbi is "looking into an anti-fascism training in Berlin for American activists." That's our current status.

I'm not the only one who feels it this year, even in a new poll.

Ever since President Reagan ("government is the problem"), the Republican party has been convinced that government authority is broken, and they've been willing to break everything they touch in order to prove it. They find ways to reduce the effectiveness of every service of government, from schools to environment to taxation to technology, even metric conversion. Somehow, the Post Office remains in operation despite their best efforts through the Bush and Trump administrations to ruin it too.

"I have always thought of government as a kind of organism with an insatiable appetite for money, whose natural state is to grow forever unless you do something to starve it."
- Ronald Reagan, U.S. President

( Read more about USA politics and the Supreme Court... )

Unless we finally implement demarchy in the USA, I think I'll have to side with China on this one: USA democracy was lost to plutocracy. I would also accept the peaceful separation of the USA as a solution, letting conservative states and liberal states go their separate ways as unique nations of their own.

Moody Monday, when I try my best to pick the single most important crisis of the week for examination. Hoo boy, these times are special.

I'm updating and expanding my previous warning about anti-trans sentiment in some states. Now, I'm expanding it to the whole queer rainbow. Get out. Get out of your repressive states now. Move somewhere safe. Personally, I recommend Minnesota (in spite of it being a hybrid status here), but there are others.

The warning signs of escalation are here:

U.S. Air Force made the unusual statement that it will help LGBTQ personnel, even if it means relocating them from hostile USA domestic areas.
U.S. military personnel are receiving advice to avoid certain areas of the USA.
In Texas, a preacher called for the murder of homosexuals. (video)
In Idaho, Patriot Front neo-fascists were arrested from a U-Haul van they were hiding in while traveling to a gay pride event. (video) Some of them wore a "Reclaim America" shirt or "Victory or Death" cap.
In Georgia, one of their U.S. Representatives explicitly embraced Christian nationalism. (video) She says Democrats are domestic terrorists, but the data says otherwise.
In Georgia, a governor candidate (beside a slogan of "Jesus. Guns. Babies.", my thumbnail icon here is so appropriate) suggests she would execute corrupt sheriffs for treason. (video)
In Tennessee, they're literally burning books.
In Wyoming, someone set fire to an abortion clinic.
In New York, the 3rd-ranking Republican in the U.S. House has endorsed a Hitler-approving candidate.
In Georgia, Florida, and Texas, some people are okay with outright slavery. Do not trust these people to act with any humanity.

It is not safe for queer folk like me in these territories. Leave any state where conservatism took over. See the color coded heat map on page 16 to find a safe place. The time for cautionary warnings is past. Follow the advice of the U.S. military. Get yourself somewhere safe. Find a way to resist, if you can. (Be like Wonder Woman. Be antifa.) As with the ongoing pandemic, avoid exposure to dangerous situations. Reduce your risk.

I'm still frustrated by the astonishing lack of progress in prosecuting 4 years of crimes (click above the table to "Show All entries"). The opening for the January 6th hearing, though, was meaningful. Chairman Bennie Thompson came right out and said, "conspiracy". He came right out and plainly stated, "January 6th was the culmination of an attempted coup."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Y64FGPW28g (YouTube, ABC News)

They failed, however, to draw attention to the actions people played in securing non-action from the military in capitol defense, plus reduced efficacy from some of the capitol police. Too much focus on the crowd's sedition. Donald Trump did not act alone in power. Cue Republicans who absolutely, undoubtedly, for 4 whole years were totally telling Trump to cool it down: "Would I lie to you to protect my own hide?"

I told you it was a coup. Incompetent. Failed. But a coup.

I told Defense One when they tried to issue apologia to distract from this conclusion and their role in it.

I tell you again, repeatedly: Be like Wonder Woman. Be Antifa.

I've seen international threads on Twitter from foreigners baffled by certain aspects of USA policy and politics. I agree, it's nonsensical.

Here are 4 quick ways to learn why it is thus, arranged in order of time commitment.

3 minutes: An unusually coherent thread on Twitter explains the Republican party and the difference between its internal motivations versus external reporting. Using this principle, you can predict how the Republican party will react to any proposal.
3 minutes: A YouTube video about the left-to-right spectrum.
- It doesn't even explain that Richard Nixon (infamous conservative US President) tested Universal Basic Income, froze costs on rent and food, signed anti-discrimination law, created the Environmental Protection Agency, and more liberal stuff. That's how far right the Overton window in the USA has shifted during my lifetime. That former conservative is now essentially too liberal for the current Democratic party. I've written before about this topic.
19 minutes: A YouTube video about the pillars of fascism and how conservative politics directly incorporates its tactics. It reviews the actual broadcast by conservative USA politicians during AmericaFest. You can rewind to the beginning to see him build the list of topics that he starts discussing at the linked point of the video. Near the end, he proposes how to change USA politics. "Rage is the correct response to the way things have been going lately. The only question now is which side gets to claim and wield it." As I've been saying for a long time, "Don't bring the anointed candidate" to an electorate hungry for a populist.
60 minutes: A YouTube video about conservative humor. Weird topic, right? It's excellent, though, which is why it has 1.7 million views. You need to watch through the end, as he shows examples of "good" conservative humor in stark contrast to what counts for conservative jokes currently.
- The link I've provided skips the first 20 minutes. You can scroll back to view it, if you want. It does help to build the logical argument, but it's painful to watch. The "humor" widely misses the mark, which is bad for a video about the logical construction of good comedy.

That last item is probably the most insightful of the bunch, but it requires a longer time investment to learn the lesson. I recommend watching it before even starting on the other 3 points. Knowing its lesson, so much more in conservative performative politics makes sense.

Our 4th estate of journalism is badly failing our country. It does not point out these 4 lessons. They are essential, though, to understand what's happening in the USA, with a pattern repeating globally too.

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May 2025

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